Based upon the forecasts of the models that predict the temperature of the El Niño Region, which is used to forecast the weather’s general conditions throughout the year, the temperatures will be above average. For Guatemala, this means that we could have less rain in the second half of the rainy season; there could also be an extended heatwave.

As the following graphic from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society IRI (Columbia University, US) shows, most of the models forecast a warm up in the El Nino Region 3.4. We must remember that this model is oceanic and that needs to match up with the Southern Oscillation to show the ENOS phenomenon. The ICC will be tracking this condition and will be updating information about its evolution.


This graphic shows the forecasts made by the dynamic and statistical models SST in the 3.4 El Nino Regions.  Source: IRI, 2017.

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